This Saturday Lunchtime sees a big London derby when Chelsea meet North London rivals Arsenal. Both teams will be looking to take points from this game as both clubs have had mixed fortunes over the past couple of weeks.
Arsenal will be hoping to continue their good run after winning 4 games on the trot in all competitions. Manager Arsene Wenger came under scrutiny during Arsenals annual general meeting but a victory here would certainly quite many of the doubters. However Arsenals recent away form, both generally and against Grade A opposition suggest they will be doing well to collect a point
Chelsea are coming off a poor defeat to West London rivals QPR and will be keen to get their little challenge back on the road. Today they will be without Jose Bosingwa and Didier Drogba who, both were shown straight red cards last weekend. Arsenal will be relieved that Drogba plays no part as he has scored 8 times in the previous 8 meetings between the 2 clubs. Victory today is vital if Chelsea are to mount a serious title challenge.
W12 D2 L1
Over 2.5 goals 10 matches
Under 2.5 goals in 5 matches
Both teams scored in 9 matches
Scored 1st in 11 games
W6 D2 L1
Over 2.5 goals in 6 matches
Under 2.5 goals in 4 matches
Both teams scored in 7 matches
Chelsea 3 Draw 1 Arsenal 1
Over 2.5 goals 2 matches
Under 2.5 goals in 3 matches
Both teams scored in 3 matches
W12 D2 L1
Over 2.5 goals 10 matches
Under 2.5 goals in 5 matches
Both teams scored in 9 matches
Scored 1st in 11 games
W6 D2 L1
Over 2.5 goals in 6 matches
Under 2.5 goals in 4 matches
Both teams scored in 7 matches
The ratings are suggesting there is no real value in Chelseas current price. However Arsenal in recent games have had a very poor record away to Grade A sides only winning points in 2 of their last 8 away.
Chelsea can be backed at 4/6 (1.67) with Boylesports and if you do fancy Chelsea to do well then we need to look at angles to improve this price. Dutching the Chelsea victory by 1 or 2 goals certainly makes some sense as all 6 of their previous 6 home victories to Grade A sides have come via this margin. And barring Arsenals 2‐8 defeat at Manchester United all of their previous 5 away defeats to fellow Grade A sides have come via this margin.
Dutching the Chelsea win by 1 or 2 goals pays Evens(2.00)and this looks very worthy of consideration.
The draw can be backed at 3/1 (4.00) with Bet 365 and this oﬀers some value if not a great deal of appeal.
Arsenal can be backed at 5/1 (6.00 and this is priced about right. If you do fancy Arsenal to do well then there are a couple of interesting options on the Asian Handicap. Arsenal can be backed +0.75 goals at 6/5 (2.20) with 188 bet and this means should Arsenal lose by the single goal then you receive half of your stake back. If you want the comfort of the full goal then Arsenal can be backed +1 goal at 9/10 (1.90) with 188 bet and this looks to oﬀer some value.
As far as goals are concerned then we should expect a few. Over 2.5 goals have been seen in 10 of Chelseas last 15 home and in 13 of Arsenals last 15 away matches. Over 2.5 goals can be backed at 7/10 (1.70) with Bet 365 and despite this price s’ll looks to oﬀer some value
Both teams to score looks a strong op’on especially given the fact that Chelsea have conceded in every home game this season.
Although some caution is advised as Arsenal both teams have scored in only 4 of arsenals last 8 matches away to Grade A sides have seen both teams score and at Home to only grade a sides Both teams have scored in only 2 of Chelseas last 7 at home to Grade A sides. Both teams to score is priced at 7/10 (1.70) with Bet 365 and this looks realistic.
Finally the 2nd half to be the highest scoring looks worthy of some consideration as this has been the result in 6 of Chelseas last 10 home games v Grade A & B opposition and in 5 of Arsenals last 8 away to Grade A sides.
The 2nd half to be the highest scoring can be backed at 11/10 (2.10) with Stan James and looks a solid op’on given the above. Alternately and with the same stats as above the second half to contain Over 1.5 goals can be backed at 20/21 (1.95) with Bet 365.
Back Chelsea To Win @ 2/1 (3.0) with Bet 365
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]]>The post Overcoming the Confirmation Bias – Importance of Objective Reasoning appeared first on Premier Betting.
]]>Gambling and the Importance of Objective Reasoning
Most humans like to view ourselves as being thoroughly adaptable, and we like to feel that we are fully capable of changing our thoughts or opinions when presented with new evidence. However, the truth is that humans are creatures of habit, and we prefer to stick with what we think we know rather than being forced to confront new realities.
This phenomenon is known as the “confirmation bias,” which basically says that we tend to focus more on information that backs up our preexisting notions, instead of objectively forming or changing our opinions based on the evidence we’re presented with. This can be a huge problem for bettors, as being a successful sports bettor requires being able to objectively analyse the facts to determine the most likely outcome.
For many bettors, this leads them to make rash decisions without any regard to actual probabilities, making it that much more difficult to accurately attempt to predict the outcome of a match. For many people, this leads them to be unable to change their predictions, even when faced when evidence that proves them wrong.
In simple terms, our brains tend to give more weight to our preconceived notions than it does to actual evidence, which in turn leads to us betting subjectively instead of objectively. To illustrate this point, let’s look examine the Brazilian men’s football team at the 2014 World Cup.
For many years now, Brazil has been seen in the eyes of the footballing community as the best team in the world, despite the fact that it has been 12 years since they last won the World Cup. Yet in the eyes of much of the world, Brazil is still seen as the team to which all others should look up to and aspire to be like. The media has been playing up this idea for so long that it has basically become engrained in the football world and most people continue to believe it.
This in turn led to a huge percentage of people to bet on Brazil to win the tournament based on confirmation bias, simply because they believed the hype that Brazil was the best, without taking the time to actually examine the evidence. It’s true that Brazil is definitely the most successful team in history. However, if you were to look at their record leading up to the 2013 Confederations Cup, you’ll see that they won less than 55% of their previous 36 matches leading up to that tournament.
If you examine those numbers objectively, it suddenly becomes much harder to make a case for Brazil to win the World Cup—especially when compared to teams like Spain, which had won the previous three major international tournaments. Still, the confirmation bias allowed many people to focus solely on the positives, while completely ignoring the fact, judging on actual evidence, there were definitely other teams that had a much greater chance of being crowned World Champions.
This bias doesn’t just affect how we think about sports, but it also influences other opinions as well. In fact, there is a wellrespected study of stock market behaviour that proved just this. This study showed that when the majority of people search for information about a particular stock, the types of information they look at normally backs up their preexisting ideas about that stock. What this means is that if the person viewed a particular stock favourably, then they were more likely to focus on the information that confirmed their view instead of looking at all the information objectively. Moreover, this same study showed that those who operated in this manner were also much less likely to make a profit, as their actions were motivated by their confirmation bias, and not by any real statistical evidence.
Countering the Confirmation Bias
The first step towards overcoming the confirmation bias is to understand how and why it exists, and from there attempt you can attempt to change your way of thinking by basing your bets on objective reasoning and facts. For instance, even if you’re sure Team A will win, try to think of all of the counter arguments of why they won’t win before placing your bet.
The more you try to challenge your preconceived notions through objective reasoning, the easier it will become to take information on facevalue, instead of evaluating it based on an existing bias. The savvy sports bettor is the one that is able to take in and appreciate all opinions and points of view, and only ever decides who to bet on after objectively weighing up all the evidence. In truth, there is no way you can ever be 100 percent objective, but by understanding how your own beliefs and biases influence your opinions, you can then work towards overcoming this problem.
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]]>For all intents and purposes, the implied probability is what the bookmaker believes the chance of a specific event happening is, such as Team A winning a game. This is important because determining the implied probability can then allow you to assess the value of a particular bet.
In extremely basic terms, if you calculate the implied probability of Team A winning the game and that number is lower than the chances you give Team A of winning, then you can consider this a good value bet. For instance, the implied probability of a draw between Team A and Team B is 0.25, but you think that Team B has a much better chance of getting something out of the game and coming away with the draw, then this bet represents good value—at least in your mind.
Still, we’re getting a bit carried away here, as before you can determine if a bet represents good value, it’s first necessary to understand how to convert the odds the bookmaker lists into implied probabilities. This is made all the more challenging due to the fact that the odds may be listed in one of three different ways: decimally, fractionally or as a moneyline.
The Importance of Implied Probabilities
As said earlier, bookmakers handicap games based on how likely they think Team A will win versus how likely Team B will win versus the match ending in a draw. The outcome of each event happening is its probability, but for gambling purposes this needs to be expressed in terms of odds. This may seem confusing at first considering the various ways of expressing these odds, but after you break it down and look more closely, you’ll see that they all represent the same thing—the implied probability of that event happening.
The reason that bookmakers use odds instead of implied probabilities is that, while the two numbers represent the same thing, the odds express how much money you’ll win on a given bet, instead of simply showing the chances of the specified event occurring.
Odd Expressions and What They Mean
Depending on the particular bookmaker, you may see odds expressed in three ways:
Converting to Implied Probability
b / (a + b) (x=numerator; b=denominator)
For odds of 4/1, the result would be: 1 / (4+1) = 1 / 5 = 0.20 implied probability
So if the odds are 4/1, this means the bookmakers think that there is a 20% chance of that event happening.
1 / decimal odds
So if you take decimal odds of 4.5, you get: 1 / 4.5 = 0.22 or 22% implied probability
100 / (odds + 100)
With +140 odds, you find: 100 / (140 + 100) = 100 / 240 = 0.4167 or around 42% implied probability.
However, you need a different formula to calculate negative moneyball odds:
( – (negative odds)) / (( – (negative odds)) + 100)
So with odds of 300, you get: ( – (300)) / (( – ( 300)) + 100) = 300 / 400 = 0.75 or 75% implied probability.
A Common Betting Language?
If you want to compare the odds from one bookmaker to another, but they express the odds differently, you luckily now know how to do so—simply by converting both to their implied probabilities. For most occasions, this should be all you need to do to see which bookmaker is offering the better odds. However, there may be times when you’ll want to convert from one type of odds to another, which involves first converting them into implied probabilities like you’ve just learned.
Converting from Implied Probabilities to Odds
Ex. 20% implied probability = (100 / 15) – 1 = 5 – 1 = 4, expressed as 4/1 fractional odds
Ex. 80% implied probability = 100 / 80 = 1.25 decimal odds
(implied probability / (100 – implied probability)) x 100
Ex. 55% implied probability = – (55 / (100 – 55)) x 100 = (55 / 45) x 100 = 122 moneyball odds
((100 – implied probability) / implied probability) x 100
Ex. 15% implied probability = ((100 – 15) / 15) x 100 = (85 / 15) x 100 = +568 moneyball odds
Being able to quickly calculate between the different odds and their implied probabilities will surely come in handy as you search for good value bets and try to maximize your potential winnings. Nonetheless, if you forget how or you simply aren’t that good at math, there are plenty of handy tools available online that can do most of these conversions for you. Still, the quicker you can wrap your head around exactly what the various odds actually mean, the sooner you’ll be able to immediately know a good bet when you see one.
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]]>First and foremost, sports betting is both an art and a science, so while betting with your heart or based on a gut feeling may work out in your favour from time to time, if you really want to succeed at it in the longterm it takes being able to spot a favourable outcome when you see it.
Monty Hall and the Law of Probabilities
There is a wellknown probability problem that was first brought to public light during the 1960s and 70s by the US TV show “Let’s Make a Deal.” In fact, the problem even got its name from the show’s host, Monty Hall. This problem highlights the way that people continually choose the wrong option because of their inability to properly calculate probabilities.
In fact, after reading through it, you may still not believe the answer—this despite the numbers obviously proving that it’s true. The problem goes as such: a person is shown three doors, behind one of which is a new car and behind each of the other two is a goat. They are told to choose which door they think the car is behind, after which one of the other doors is opened to reveal the goat—but here’s where it gets tricky, as now they have the choice to either stick with their original door or switch their selection.
If it was up to you what would you choose? Well, if you’re like most people on the show, you probably said you’d stay with your original selection as you don’t gain anything by changing. After all, once one of the three doors has been eliminated, you now have a 50% chance of being correct? Right? In actuality it’s not nearly as simple as that.
When you’re originally presented with the three doors, you have a 33.3% or 1 in 3 chance of choosing correctly, but also a 66.6% chance that the car is behind one of the other two doors. The key here though, is that after one of the other doors is eliminated, your door still only has its original 33.3% of winning, while the remaining 66.6% shifts to the other door. This means that statistically the car will actually be behind that door two out of three times. It may sound unbelievable, but there’s plenty of evidence to back it up.
Playing Smart, Playing the Odds
The reason this example is important when it comes to sports betting is that it illustrates people’s difficulties with being able to recognize good odds from bad. Being a successful bettor requires the knowledge to understand what the odds mean and the patience to wait until the odds are in your favour. You need to be able to calculate the implied probabilities and weigh them up against your own thoughts and evidence, and by doing so, you can know when the odds are against you to avoid making silly or risky bets.
Although the majority of people may be unable to recognize when they’re in a statistically superior or inferior situation, once you come to grips with this fact and start thinking about betting in a way that’s driven by math and probability as opposed to doing it based on a hunch or gut feeling—then you’ll also know how to bet in a way that’s in your own best interest and will hopefully maximize your winning potential.
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]]>However, while putting extra significance on these “expert” opinions may be fully justified in some situations, doing so also comes as a major risk in others. Basically, just because a person has special knowledge doesn’t make them a specialist.
This fact was perfectly illustrated by Nassim Nicholas Taleb in the book “Antifragile,” with what he terms the Green Lumber Fallacy. In his book, Taleb presents the case of Joe Siegel, who in his time was one of the world’s most successful traders of “green lumber.” For those who are unaware, green lumber refers to freshly cut, wet wood that has yet to be dried, which Siegel made a huge fortune out of selling.
If you didn’t know what green lumber was, don’t feel bad, as in fact Siegel himself didn’t know either. Despite the fact that he made a fortune from it, Siegel didn’t think he was selling fresh, wet wood, but instead he assumed that green lumber referred to wood that had been painted green. Still, his lack of knowledge on the subject didn’t stop him from making a huge amount of money off of it.
Now, you could be forgiven for assuming that, because Siegel was the leader in the green lumber industry, he was also had expert knowledge of his field. However, this is exactly what the Green Lumber Fallacy is—just because someone is an expert in their field, this doesn’t necessarily mean they have expert knowledge about that field.
Judging the Expertise of Sports Specialists
The Green Lumber Fallacy is particularly interesting when it comes to sports and sports betting, as again we tend to expect that someone who is close to sports is therefore better equipped to pass judgment on that sport. You see this quite often nowadays with various former athletes or journalists and pundits who like to provide betting tips.
It’s easy to see why people may lend credibility to their predictions—after all, these people used to play the game, so they should be considered an expert, right?
Wrong. A former football player might be an expert in the sport, and in fact they probably have expert knowledge about the sport, but this doesn’t automatically make them an expert in sports betting. The key thing to keep in mind is that playing football and betting on football are two entirely different things.
If we look back at the case of Joe Siegel, you can see this expressed perfectly. There can be no doubt that Siegel was an expert in green lumber trading. However, it’s also clear that he definitely wasn’t an expert on green lumber itself, being that he thought he was buying and selling something else altogether.
The same thing goes for socalled sports experts. Just because Player A was an expert at playing football, it doesn’t mean you should automatically trust him to be an expert at betting on football. The real reason that Siegel was so successful had nothing to do with his knowledge of green lumber, but more about his ability to weigh up the risk vs. reward to evaluate his trades. He made his decisions purely objectively, without allowing his reasoning to be clouded by other factors, which is exactly what successful bettors also do.
Evaluating Risk and Understanding Expertise
To be a successful at sports betting, you need to be able to look at a particular situation and evaluate it based solely on the objective facts. However, this can be hard to do with so many socalled experts and tipsters trying to push you one way or the other.
Think about it this way—you might be the biggest Liverpool fan in the world and know everything there is to know about the team. However, just because you’ve seen every game, does this make you capable of judging the potential outcomes of a match? If your judgment isn’t based on statistical probabilities, then the answer is a resounding no.
So, the key is to understand that socalled “experts” rarely turn out to have expert knowledge. By knowing and understanding this, you are now better positioned to make decisions based on objective reasoning, which is the only way to ever truly have any longterm success in sports betting.
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]]>It’s safe to assume that most everyone understands the concept that the more times you run an event, the closer your results will be to their expected probability. This was proven by mathematician Jacob Bernoulli in the 17^{th} century by tossing a coin many thousands of times and recording whether it landed on heads or tails.
In his Law of Large Numbers, Bernoulli concluded that the more times he tossed the coin, the closer to the percentages came to an even 50% each. However, the most important part of his results was the fact that, even though the percentages do start to equal out, at the same the time there is a growth in the difference between the two outcomes.
Look at it this way—you toss a coin 10 times, and 9 out of the 10 times it lands on tails. This gives you 10% heads and 90% tails, with a difference of 9 in between the two. Now, after tossing the same coin another 9,990 times, you end up with 4,900 tails (49%) and 4,900 heads (51%). As you can see, even though the two percentages are much closer after 10,000 tosses than they were after 10, there is now a much greater difference in between the two than there were in the first sample.
To understand why this is important for gambling, let’s look back at the first 10 coin tosses. You toss the coin the first 9 times, and it lands on tails every time. So, if you had to bet on the outcome of the 10^{th} toss, after tossing 9 tails in a row, which would you bet on—heads or tails? You’d probably pick heads like most people, mostly because you think it must be due—after all, the statistics usually even out, right?
Wrong. This is exactly what the gambler’s fallacy is—thinking that just because the same outcome has happened repeatedly, that the other outcome somehow suddenly has a better chance to occur. In truth, no matter what the previous outcomes were, you have a 50% chance of it landing on either heads or tails.
Games of chance such as this have no memory or record of the previous outcomes and they never matter for the outcome of the next game—no matter what your gut may be telling you.
The Gambler’s Fallacy in Real Life
The reason that Bernoulli should be important to a gambler is that his theorem teaches us that even though the results of an outcome should become proportional over time, we can’t use these results to determine the next outcome. And if you try to do so, you could end up losing a whole lot of money.
For those who enjoy slot machines, you’re probably familiar with the person who stands guard over a machine they’ve been pumping money into—not letting anyone else play it because they know it will soon pay out. Six hours later, the same person is sitting at the same chair, still thrusting coins in the machine and mumbling to himself about how it will pay out soon—it just has to.
Don’t let yourself get suckered into this way of thinking. In gambling, nothing has to happen—it either does or it doesn’t, and nothing that’s happened before is going to change it. The sooner you realize this, the sooner you’ll be able to understand how the games work and start making more calculated risks based on odds.
This applies to other games as well. Take for instance the infamous 1913 case of a casino in Monte Carlo, which saw the roulette wheel land on black 5, 10, 15, 25 and then 26 times before finally hitting red. As you can imagine, the more times it hit black, the bigger and bigger bets people were putting on red in the thought that the streak just couldn’t go on. In fact, it was all random chance and each spin had the same chances as the next, but that didn’t stop a lot of people from losing a lot of money due to their irrational thinking. This incident is also the reason why it’s sometimes referred to as the Monte Carlo fallacy as well.
While all of these are bad, the worst of all is the gambler who thinks that he or she is due a win because they’ve been on a long losing streak. There is no such thing as a sure thing in gambling. It’s all down to chance and probability, but by understanding that, you can also learn to judge a good bet from the bad.
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]]>The post Don’t Believe the Hype: Value Judgments vs The Halo Effect appeared first on Premier Betting.
]]>Whether it’s down to simple laziness or simply more a product of our society and culture, the fact is that people often let their judgment be clouded by factors that have no effect on an event’s outcome. This phenomenon is known as the Halo Effect, and it partly stems from the brain’s need to quickly evaluate a situation to determine the most likely outcome.
You can think of it as intuition—quickly scanning all of the available evidence to make an immediate appraisal of the situation. This skill is something that was developed over millions of years of evolution, and it likely played a huge role in the survival of our species, as being able to make rapid decisions often meant life or death when faced with a dire situation.
Intuition plays an incredibly important role in how we perceive and judge the people and world around us, and much of the time it comes in quite handy. Such as quickly making a judgment about whether your boss is in a good mood before you ask for a raise.
The main problem with this skill is that when we try to make a snap appraisal of a particular situation, we don’t have time to fully evaluate all of the possible evidence. This leads the brain to develop a bias towards certain types of information, prioritizing the information we receive first and overestimating the significance of particularly positive information.
If you were to actually sit down and critically think about all the facts, your decision is more likely to be rational, whereas snap judgments tend to be based on bias or preconceptions. So, while intuition may be good in the case of asking your boss for a raise, the Halo Effect renders it virtually useless when it comes to determining probabilities.
Part of the Halo Effect concerns the order in which we receive information, as the brain tends to prioritize the info it receives first—whether the order has any relevance or not. The other half of the Halo Effect places a higher significance on certain events or details, again whether or not that significance actually exists.
This relates to betting because the Halo Effect causes us to be biased towards or against a certain team, no matter what the actual evidence or probability suggests. Take for instance the Brazilian men’s national football team, which continues to be thought of by many as the best team in the world—despite the fact that their last World Cup win was in 2002. Going into the 2014 World Cup in Brazil, a majority of fans and pundits around the globe were convinced that Brazil would win.
This perfectly illustrates the Halo Effect, as people were picking Brazil to win simply because of the misconceived notion that they have the best team, despite the fact that a quick look at the statistics would likely erase any notion of their team being the best. At the end of the day, Brazil was mercilessly beaten by Germany in the semifinals, proving just how dangerous it is to make betting decisions based on your personal biases or gut feelings.
The reason that the notion of Brazil having the best team exists is in part due to the team’s early successes in the 50s, 60s and 70s. At that time, Brazil was indeed the best team on the planet, and they have also produced some of the best footballer’s in the world. Yet this bias continues to be perpetuated by the media today to the point where many football fans and even casual observers automatically equate Brazilian players and teams with being the best.
For whatever reason, everything related to Brazilian football has this Halo Effect around it, causing us to play significance on their past achievements—despite the fact that they have no effect on the game today.
Don’t Be Effected
In gambling, the Halo Effect is dangerous because it can cloud your judgment and keep you from looking at the game from a purely statistical viewpoint based on probabilities. When betting, your choices should always be based on probability, not just because you think Team A is the best, but because you’ve judged the bet to have good value. The Halo Effect can also work in the reverse, causing you to be biased against a team for the same misguided reasons.
The point of all this isn’t to tell you that you’re wrong for thinking Team A is the best or not liking Team B. The point is that you should never let these types of judgments influence your betting decisions. Developing a successful betting strategy requires being able to process all of the available information to reach an informed decision that is based only on facts, not on preconceived notions.
However, this isn’t always an easy task, as often these preconceptions are so deeply ingrained in the mind that you’re not even aware of them. Still, after learning about how the Halo Effect can influence your thinking, you’ll be better prepared to recognize your own biases.
The easiest way to ensure your bets are not based on the Halo Effect is to thoroughly examine all of the objective data you can. This will allow you to get a better idea of the actual probability of an event happening, which can then be used to determine the value of a bet.
The human brain is an amazing tool, but it does have a weakness when it comes to evaluating statistically probabilities. While intuition may help save your life in a dangerous situation, it can cause harm if it’s used for statistical reasoning. Of course, now that you know how it works, all that’s left is to make sure you don’t let the Halo Effect cloud your judgment.
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]]>The post Beginner’s Betting 101: Calculating Odds and Probability appeared first on Premier Betting.
]]>Understanding how bookmakers use odds to judge the potential outcome of a match can be a major challenge for new bettors, but once you get over the hill and begin being able to calculate how those odds translate into potential winnings, it’s then possible to start comparing the odds offered by different bookmakers and weighing your bets to try to maximize your profits.
Odds = Probability
The first step in understanding odds is to realize that they are simply a bookmaker’s way of expressing the probability of a specific outcome. However, that’s not as easy as it sounds, partly because bookmakers often express their odds in different ways—with decimal and fractional odds being the two most common. Still, no matter how they are expressed, all the odds are doing is converting probability into a form that can be used for betting.
Probability Explained
In quite simple terms, probability is a scale which we can use to measure the likelihood that an event will occur. The scale begins at 0, meaning there is zero possibility of the event happening, and goes up to 1, which designates that it’s a certainty the event will happen.
Before getting into how odds and probabilities work in betting, it’s first necessary to understand how to calculate them. This information can then in turn be used to calculate the payout for a certain bet, which is an important part of developing a wellinformed betting strategy.
To give a quick example of calculating probability, let’s take a look at one standard sixsided playing dice. Having six equal sides, we therefore know that we have six possible outcomes when we roll it and there’s an equal chance of it landing on any of the sides. So, say you want to roll a 3, you have a 1/6 or 0.1667 chance of it landing on your desired number (16.7% if you prefer percentages). Following this logic, it’s easy to see that probability can be defined as:
the chance of a specific or desired outcome/ number of possible outcomes
Once we have our probability of 0.1667, we can then use this number to calculate both decimal and fractional odds like those used by bookmakers.
Converting Probability to Odds
Once you know the probability of your desired event happening, it’s even easier to calculate the decimal odds using this formula:
1 (certainty of the event) / probability of desired event
Taking the previous example, you know the odds of rolling a 3 are 0.1667, so following the above formula you arrive at: 1 / 0.1667 = 6. So in this case, the decimal odds would be 6.0—this could also be expressed in fractional odds as 5/1, but that will be covered more a bit later.
Now that you know the decimal odds, you can easily use those to determine the probability in much the same way, using the opposite formula of:
1 (certainty of event) / decimal odds
In the case of the dice example, you’ve already seen that the probability was 1/6 or 0.1667, so this shouldn’t come as much of a surprise. However, it gets more complicated later when you start looking at the actual odds offered by bookmakers.
Calculating Bookmaker Edge or Margin
To again look at the dice, we know (or can easily calculate) that the total of the probabilities of all possible events added together will equal 1 or 100%. While you may think that this should always be the case, if you were to begin calculating the odds offered by bookmakers, you would soon see that they always add up to more than 1.
The reason for this is that bookmakers obviously need to make a profit to hedge their bets and stay in business, so they never odd the true odds. Instead of offering the exact probabilities of an event happening, bookmakers inflate their odds to try to ensure they make a profit regardless of the outcome. This is known as the bookmaker’s margin or edge, and basically, the higher the total of all the odds, the greater edge they have on the bet. As a bettor, this isn’t a good thing, as it means the odds you’re getting aren’t exactly what they should be.
While all bookmakers have an edge, luckily for you, it’s easy to calculate just how much their edge is by simply adding up the probabilities. The closer that number is to 100% = the closer the odds being offered are to the true odds.
Calculating Potential Payouts Using Decimal and Fractional Odds
Now that you’ve got a handle on calculating odds and probabilities, you can easily use this information to determine the potential payout of any bet given certain odds—no matter whether they’re listed in fractions or in decimal odds.
Taking the decimal odds of 6.0 from the dice example, you can then calculate the potential payout using this simple equation:
amount of bet * decimal odds
So, if you bet $100 that you would roll a 3 and you succeeded, your winnings would be 100 * 6.0 or $600. However, that amount includes the original stake of $100, which you need to subtract to determine actual profits. So, in this case 600 – 100 = $500 potential profit from the original $100 bet.
To demonstrate this further, it’s time to finally put your theoretical knowledge to practical use with a hypothetical football match. Let’s say England are scheduled to play Poland and you’ve got your eye on betting on England to win.
After looking at the odds, you see one bookmaker has England to win listed at decimal odds of 1.60, which means if you were to bet $100 and England won, your total payout would be $160 or a profit of $60.
However, you see that another bookmaker is offering England to win at 4/7 odds and you want to know which one would give a better payout. To determine it, first you need to understand what the fractional odds are telling you, which in this case means that a winning bet will pay out $4 for every $7 bet. Still, that can be confusing, so let’s make it easy to compare the two by converting the fractional odds to decimal odds, which can first diving the fraction and then adding one.
In the case of our example, it would be (4 / 7) +1, which equals 1.57. So comparing the two, you’d be better off going with the first bookmaker, as a winning bet would net you an additional $3.
Hopefully all of this helps to clear up the confusion surrounding odds, probabilities and betting, although really it’s just the tip of the iceberg when you start looking into double chance betting and other more complicated aspects. Still, these tools should be invaluable to you on your way to learning how to judge odds and distinguish what constitutes a good bet, and with any luck, might just set you on the road to success.
The post Beginner’s Betting 101: Calculating Odds and Probability appeared first on Premier Betting.
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]]>Weekly Insider 2013/14 Podcast – Week 2 – Listen Now – Download via ITunes
Weekly Insider 2013/14 Podcast – Week 3 – Listen Now – Download via ITunes
Weekly Insider 2013/14 Podcast – Week 4 – Listen Now – Download via ITunes
Weekly Insider 2013/14 Podcast – Week 5 – Listen Now – Download via ITunes
Weekly Insider 2013/14 Podcast – Week 7 – Listen Now – Download via ITunes
Weekly Insider 2013/14 Podcast – Week 7 – Listen Now – Download via ITunes
Week 3
This weekend Pete previews all the Premier League matches and also reviews how the regular weekly contributors performed with their picks.
Jimmy Kemptons Division 2 stat pack
Premier Betting game of the week
The post Weekly Insider Podcast – 2013/14 appeared first on Premier Betting.
]]>The post Both Teams To Score True Odds Revealed – The Ultimate Guide appeared first on Premier Betting.
]]>You probably already know what the Both Teams to score market is? But are you aware that if you bet on this market regularly there is a fair chance you will be making some poor selections along the way.
In this article I will show you how the odds are stacked against you particularly if you are one of the many punters betting on the Both Teams to Score Multiple bets such as Yankees, Accumulators.
Fans Love Goals
The both teams to score market are now very much on trend, with the Betfred Goals Galore market which has proved to be extremely popular with punters. The reason that this market is so popular is because punters and fans alike love goals and the perception is that matches are full of them when in reality scoring a goal in a football match is a relatively rare event.
Also with this bet, the often overlooked reality is, unless you are betting to a near 100% book the odds are very much in favour of the bookmaker purely and simply because of the Overround which can in this market be as much as 10%.
Just as an example let us show you a Swedish League match between Hacken and AIK and the various bookmakers’ prices on offer. Here we can see that the bookmakers over round on the majority of the firms is around 7% with Marathon bet offering the smallest margin at around 5% and Fortuna Win the biggest margin at over 10%.
If you fail to shop around and get best odds you will find this a difficult market to get the better of.
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BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE A STATISTICAL BREAKDOWN
First we will take a look at the basic stats over the four major European leagues and here we will look at the last 10 seasons of the English Premier League and the last eight seasons of the Italian Serie A, German Bundesliga and the Spanish La Liga.
When looking at the stats we can see the following percentage of games saw the Yes on both teams scoring
You can see that, when looking at over 12,300 matches both teams scored in 6392 of these games which equates to 51.80% or odds of 1.93. So effectively the chances of both teams finding the back of the net is around even money or 50%.
When you dig a little deeper into these stats you can see that there are some common trends running through the four major European leagues and we shall now investigate this further.
GRADING THE SIDES
First we will split the leagues down into four grades.
Grade A: Title contenders and those teams that qualify for the Champions League.
Grade B: Teams that qualify for the Europa League, but are not quite consistent enough to make the top tier.
Grade C: Mid to lower table sides
Grade D: Finally we have the bottom six sides.
MATCHES WHERE THE TOP TWO GRADED SIDES MEET BOTH HOME & AWAY
Firstly we shall have a look at what happens when Tier one and two sides meet each other both home and away.
LEAGUE 
GAMES 
BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
% BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
EQUIVALENT ODDS

PREMIER LEAGUE 
345 
188 
54.49 
1.83 
SERIE A 
306 
178 
58.16 
1.72 
BUNDESLIGA 
386 
240 
62.17 
1.61 
LA LIGA 
236 
135 
57.20 
1.75 
Looking at the above chart we can certainly see that indeed these games are full of goals with over 60% of German matches involving the top graded sides seeing both teams finding the net.
Obviously these games are involving sides that employ the best strikers and both teams are very keen to win these games and probably in many cases, take a win or bust attitude.
TOP GRADED A&B SIDES AT HOME TO LOWERR GRADED C&D SIDES
Next we look and see how the top sides perform at home when facing the bottom 2 graded sides and this gives us the following –
LEAGUE 
GAMES 
BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
% BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
EQUIVALENT ODDS

PREMIER LEAGUE 
762 
340 
44.61 
2.24 
SERIE A 
701 
356 
50.78 
1.97 
BUNDESLIGA 
588 
288 
48.97 
2.04 
LA LIGA 
644 
314 
48.75 
2.05 
Here we can see a drastic difference especially in England where only 44.61 percentage of matches ended up with both teams scoring. The probability here is that the bottom graded sides go into these matches with a survival mentality and many times they are putting 11 men behind the ball and hoping for damage limitation.
C & D GRADED SIDES AT HOME TO TOP GRADED A & B SIDES
Now we will look at matches where the bottom two grades face the top two at home –
LEAGUE 
GAMES 
BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
% BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
EQUIVALENT ODDS

PREMIER LEAGUE 
845 
419 
49.58 
2.01 
SERIE A 
647 
314 
48.53 
2.06 
BUNDESLIGA 
577 
325 
56.32 
1.77 
LA LIGA 
655 
330 
50.38 
1.98 
Here again we see some consistency and apart from in Germany where both team found the net in over 56% of the matches it is ALMOST CERTAIN THAT BOOKMAKERS WERE NOT OFFERING THE ABOVE PRICES ON BOTH TEAMS SCORING
BOTTOM SIDES AT HOME TO FELLOW BOTTOM SIDES
Finally in this section we will take a look at how the bottom grade C & D teams fair against the same C & D graded teams.
LEAGUE 
GAMES 
BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
% BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
EQUIVALENT ODDS

PREMIER LEAGUE 
327 
171 
52.29 
1.91 
SERIE A 
340 
160 
47.00 
2.12 
BUNDESLIGA 
100 
57 
57.00 
1.75 
LA LIGA 
225 
126 
56.00 
1.78 
Here the real standout figures are in Germany and Spain. Similarly to when the top sides meet each other these two sets of sides will view these games as must win and therefore tend to be a little more open.
The approach in Italy would look to see a must not lose attitude to the game
So as we can see from the above scenarios the only time we see a real majority in both teams scoring both teams scoring tends to be when the top two A & B graded sides meet each other and you can almost certainly guarantee that the bookmakers factor this in.
PROFILING A BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE GAME
When looking at a suitable game for both teams to score it is certainly interesting to see how the away side performs in the 1^{st} half.
Interestingly it would appear that if the away side do not find the net in the 1^{st} half then your chances of landing the bet are obviously seriously reduced.
In the table below we can see the number of matches where the away side has failed to score in the first half and how many then went on to see Both Teams finding the net.
LEAGUE 
NUMBER OF GAMES WHERE AWAY TEAM DID NOT SCORE IN THE 1^{st} HALF 
NUMBER OF GAMES BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
% OF GAMES BOTH TEAMS SCORED 
PREMIER LEAGUE 
2345 
798 
34.02 
SERIE A 
1563 
657 
34.32 
BUNDESLIGA 
1363 
543 
38.23 
LA LIGA 
1834 
608 
33.15 
So if the away side do not find the net in the 1^{st} half then there is roughly a 66% 1.50 chance that the game will end up with the NO on both teams to score.
This is where profiling your teams comes in very handy and indeed if you do fancy both teams to score then ideally you are looking for an away side that has a good track record of finding the net regularly in the 1^{st} half.
Indeed if you do fancy a game that would see both teams scoring and you have found an away side that has a decent record of scoring away from home in the first half then an alternative maybe to back the away side to score over 0.5 Goals in the first half and if this is the case then I think you will find that the odds on offer are far better than the price offered on Both teams to Score. However once again you should do your due diligence if you are not receiving value on the Both teams to score market it is unlikely that you will be receiving any value on the away side to score Over 0.5 goals in the first half.
BETTING ON THE ’NO’ ON BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE
I personally like going against the grain in these markets and you can follow my NO on both teams to score selections during the season on goal.com
However as we have seen from the stats as well as looking at the general trends it is important that you profile your matches by using software such as Betformpro
When placing this bet as with all bets it is imperative that you are placing your money at the best odds available and due to the bookmakers over round and the fact that firms like Pinnacle do not take these bets you are almost certainly better placing these bets on Betfair even with the commission you will still probably be backing at the best odds.
Finally I want to show you something based around the popular accumulators punters are lead in to by the many of the high street bookmakers such as the Super 6 Coupon offered by Betfred.
Let’s say you pick 6 selections for each round of matches in the football calendar (38) and with your new found knowledge from above you have calculated on average 5% value on each selection. These selection are priced at – 1.94, 1.74, 1.92, 1.76, 1.87 & 1.78.
How many times on average in a season do you think you would land your accumulator?
The answer is once and should you be losing just 5% on each selection from backing poor value selections, when you do eventually get a winner, and if we say on this occasion it is on the 38^{th} attempt, you would still be out of pocket to the tune of 10 points, which even if you were placing just £10 per bet it is a quite substantial £100 or a 26% loss on investment.
IN SUMMARY
If you are looking to have a bet on the both teams to score market, do not be frightened of going against the grain and backing NO. Many people seem to find this something difficult to get their head around, hence why the bookmakers in general underprice the YES.
However as highlighted above if this is to happen then the away side will probably have to score in the first half so ensure you profile each game and look for the away sides teams that tend to start fast.
As far as the goals galore multiple bet is concerned, if you are taking you’re betting at all seriously then as we have seen from the statistics this is certainly a bet to avoid.
Article Written by Pete Nordsted & Danny Jaques
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