DoTeams That Score First in the First 15 Minutes Generally Go On To Win?

People who are familiar with my work will be aware that I am a keen student of shot on target data having studied it for a number of years.

I also have a big interest in the time of the first goal and have written in this area as well and last week shows how important it is to have an understanding of the time of the first goal and the team involved if you would like to make regular profits from playing the unders and overs market in running as time decays.

The first thing you need to do is to document the time of the first goal on your spreadsheet and mark done if it was a home or away goal. Peter will be discussing this in detail at trading seminars next year so I will not go into any detail but we will now look at the games where the goal was scored 0-15 in the last 2 rounds of the prem.

If we look at the table below then just one game involved an early goal impeding further goals. Looking at Man UTD when they score atHOME first goal 0-15, they have only averaged 1.62 further goals in the game. The mind can ‘trigger’ what become random bets. Put your hand up if you backed overs In Running in the Man UTD v West Ham game thinking you were buying money.

In simple terms academic research into goals in football has shown that when the first away goal is scored 0-35 that it increases expectation of further goals to the HOME team then expected before the game started.(ie the goal prediction for that team)

Looking at the home team scoring first 0-15, only Fulham have lost this season when scoring first in that time band and not conceding a goal in that time band.

But you may be thinking that when teams score at home the first goal 0-15 that you are buying money by backing them “momentum betting” butthe reverse happens which I call fight back.

Although there were 4/5 home wins this weekend in this scenario we see overall that this season there have been 61% home wins so we have an expectation of ‘FIGHT BACK” ie the away team getting a point.

West Ham v Chelsea

9 shots on target (SOT)  v 7

Chelsea T 7- This triggers immediate expectation of further goals(see the academic research/ plot the first away goal 0-15 over the last fewyears) and expectation that WEST HAM will “fight back”. This season there have been just 40% away wins FT when the away side score first0-15.

You can clearly see that when Chelsea scored on 13′ then WEST HAM +0.5 goals (you win the bet if WEST HAM draw “fight back” or WIN was fantastic value and a time analysis “trigger bet”. Around the country people who follow time analysis would have hit the trigger button

Arsenal v Swansea

5 SOT v 7SOT

In the In Running room at Premier betting 0-0 FT was layed at 1.50 and  WON

Attempt saved. Michu (Swansea City) left footed shot from a difficult angle on the left is saved in the bottom right corner. Assisted by Luke Moore with a through ball. 73′

It was at this point that there was “expectation” of both teams scoring so laying 0-0 gives you both teams on your side. This is the beauty of not backing teams as a goal does not mess up your ‘betstimulation” . At premier betting we are simply looking for ‘triggers” re expectation of a goal.

In the Arsenal game there was a big trigger.

If you would like to see this in real time then I suggest you sign up to the Premier betting Gold Membership to get into the Live In-Play Room