Last night’s West Ham v Stoke match was almost the perfect betting/trading match with so many strong trends.
Sometimes you find that it is the less glamorous games that can serve you the best.
At half time Stoke where leading 0-1
Armed with around 3 season’s data I observed and gave out the following in the Gold members In play room;
Stoke had only been 0-1 up at Half Time away at Grade D sides 3 times and on all 3 occasions did not go on to win.
West Ham had been behind 0-1 in 4 games at home to Grade C sides they had only lost 1 of those 4 matches
Also Stoke have conceded at least one goal in 14 of their last 15 away games to Grade C & D sides.
So it suggested that West ham would probably score.
When looking at the Grade D v Grade C data the trends were not as strong and in 35 matches where the away team were leading 0-1 the home side had only gone on to win 2 matches there were 11 draws and the away team won 22 of these games.
Of the above 35 matches there was a further goal in 28 of these matches.
So here we were playing with probabilities and here was my thought pattern
a. we know Stoke have conceded in 14 of 15
b. When the 2 teams have been in similar positions the away teams have only won 1 in 7 having scored no further goals in 6 of the 7.
c. The stats Grade D v Grade D are not good but there has been no further goals in only 7 of the 35
So in summary there will probably be another goal and West Ham will score it.
I then personally backed West Ham to score the next goal at 1.95 although laying Stoke would also have been a viable alternative.
When West Ham equalised in the 48th minute many would have expected further goals. But as we can see from the above stats the odds were certainly in favour of no further goals as it was highly unlikely that West Ham would win as only 2 home sides had won in 35 matches.
When both sides had played similar opposition the away side had not scored in the 2nd half in 6 of the 7 matches.
So here you could back Under 3.5 goals or time decay Under 2.5 goals nipping in and out of the market fully knowing that the stats are on your side.
Now does the above happen every match? No far from it however it happens enough to make some very good profit and providing you take a patient approach and go with the probabilities you should come out on top.
When people say that football is random then they should take a look at this and many other occurrences week in and week out.
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